(Group: Ryan, Eric & Phil)
Argentina has experienced a variety of economic pitfalls and peaks over the past few decades. The country was in a state of yearly GDP growth of 0.4% on average from the year 1975 until 2002 when it fell into an economic crisis. Argentina’s GDP has grown nearly 10% in 2005 since 2003. Discussions over the future of the Argentine economy have spurred over the question of sustainability of GDP growth of this magnitude over the years to come.
It is our opinion that although Argentina’s economy will surely grow over the next five years, the country cannot sustain a GDP growth rate of almost 10% a year. When considering the growth rate of other established and healthy economically sound countries, the averages of these economies typically range from 3 to 5% each year. This would include countries like the U.S., the U.K. and other Latin American countries.
These extreme growth rates were most likely due to large investments and huge capital inflow coming in following the debt crisis due to cheap real estate and growth potential. Argentina has an agriculture based economy that is unlikely to retain a GDP growth rate that is so abnormally high such as they have experienced recently. This would be atypical for the type of economy that Argentina has.
Also, as imports gain more ground in the nation the real exchange rate of the peso will improve. As the results of the currently booming economy the currency will get stronger as the economy stabilizes and therefore GDP growth will no longer reach these numbers. The actual exchange rate appreciation will make investments more expensive in the long run and therefore drive down the level of investment. This will not necessarily send the economy into a recession, however, its rate of growth will ease.
No country in the world could realistically sustain a growth level at 10% per year. This holds especially true due to Kirchner’s retenciones plan that will likely see a shrink in incoming funds as the rate of exports eases. This also ties to the jefe and jefa de hogar programs that will leave government with less money to throw around as these funds no longer run large surpluses each year.
Argentine politics also lack any continuity from one administration to the next. The new leader following Kirchner, whether he runs for reelection or not, could drastically change the economic policy and run the economy down. However, assuming Kirchner is elected for another term, economic growth will probably remain constant but obviously not at a rate near 10% each year.
The two impressive styles of music and dance of flamenco and tango are both very important cultural forms of expression. Each dance relies on the atmosphere that the lights and music backing the performance creates to illustrate its message. This holds especially true for flamenco. Flamenco is an upbeat and very rhythmically charged dance that is lead mostly by the guitar and powerful pounding beats of the drum. Tango is lead primarily by the acordian like instrument called the bandeon. Dancing and playing flamenco is heavily emotion inspired and can change and be different everytime each song is played. Flamenco is very loose and the performers sort of "go with the flow." Whereas, tango is much more rigid and structured with less room for improvising. Tango dances almost always involves a partner while flamenco is performed just as often with a partner as without. Both dances require lots of skill and are equally interesting to watch. It would seem, however, that flamenco appeals to a younger auidience currently, while tango appeals to an older crowd in Argentina. Today, tango is gaining popularity with the youth. I have enjoyed witnessing both styles and appreciate each one for their significance in the culture of Buenos Aires