Week 2 - #2 Group Blog
June 4, 2006
by J.B., John Ceisel, Brent
Someone once said that those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. For Argentina, this is a mistake that they can never afford to make. Starting in 1983 a step was taken in the right direction. With the emergence of the Radical Party with Alfonin at the helm, a course was set for constitutional rule. The institutions of democracy were a stark contrast in comparison to the military junta which overthrew Isabella Peron. Democracy, which literally means ´rule by the people´, would usher in a new age of strength and stability for Argentina.
There does not exist room for the freedoms necessary for political democracy when the military has control over the government. A crucial and quite bold move taken by Alfonin was to establish civilian control of the armed forces. Along with the beginning of an investigation of ´the disapeared´ from the Dirty War, the need to connect with the people was immediately addressed. However, and as indicated in the future, the right motives do not always appeal to the right people. A lack of public confidence sunk Alfonsin, although he achieved remarkable progress in much needed areas. It is important to note that while the public may have been in a state of disaproval, the actions which incited the mood did not result in violence.
When hyperinflation and later, economic stagnation, began to creep into the Argentine system, the people did start to voice their concern. Carlos Menem took advantage of the situation in the golden years and reversed the economic role of the state in Argentina. This would lead to the better management of hyperinflation and increase growth patterns. Two key methods which were implemented to achieve the beforementioned success, the Peso-Dollar Fixed Exchange Rate and Liberalization Program, both lead the economic overhaul. Not being constricted by the beauracracy of the military allowed Menem to so these things. Being able to make mistakes in the name of the people, albe at time blindly, was a move in the right direction of the state.
The ability to manage economic crisis is based in foundation of state-led investments and the existing internal economic growth. Precisely, one of the reasons that the collapse of the peso resisted failure for so long was amount of money firms had put into Argentina. Bringing a country which was once under-developed around to being a force in the economic market, even internationally, was profitable. What would eventually limit the growth of a concentrated market was the return of an active state policy. Argentina, most of all, had to have the state act in the national interest. For a large part bond selling era, the focus was on funnelling wealth towards the traditional elites. However, the state was in a position to eventually break the dependency on individuals and begin to promote overall development. What would eventually turn the economic crisis around was a willingness to take the necessary actions to attain the required goal. While the necessary precaution might have been absent from such decision making from time to time, Argentina never reached a point of no return. The power of the state played a large role in this.
The coups that took place between 1930 and 1976 were done so largely by unconstitutional eans. Today, the military is considerabley less influencial and not in the same position in once was. Furthermore, unlike the previous period of military dominance, the people now have a resounding voice. It is democracy. With the people of Argentina now firmly established in politics, while not always having opinions recognized, they neverless are a force. What would be more plausible in the current political system is a revolution. Seen as being mobilized by a larger group, it would give the people the means to change the political system should a movement come to that point. At this time, such a series of events is neither evident nor expected.
President Kirchner is more than capable of maintaining an equilibrium within the populace. His approval rating, as stated by the Mexican polling firm Mitofsky, is at 87%. Coincidence or the result of the prgnuin´s magic, it happens to be the highest approval rating or any state leader in North or South America. As the country is gradually re-industrialized the likelihood of coup become less likely. Overcomming the lack of a substantial amount of exports from the Menem era did wonders with regard to protecting the economy from external shocks. Something that the once static status of the fixed currency exchange rate could not handle. His continued part in the ever improving political and societal realm, is largley contigent on whether or not he applies for re-election. The outcome of that matter should have no outstanding impression of the matter of subceptibility of a coup though.
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